One of my best rules of thumb when shorting a stock: if it hasn’t gone anywhere in 5+ years, and if little has changed with the company or industry, always bet that it won’t all of a sudden turn into the next NVIDIA.

Which brings me to Canada Goose ($GOOS).

Canada Goose designs, manufactures, and retails performance luxury outerwear, apparel, footwear, and accessories, with a particular signature in cold‑climate parkas crafted in Canada. The company has steadily expanded into lighter apparel, windwear, footwear, and eyewear, sold through a growing network of direct‑to‑consumer stores, e‑commerce platforms, and select wholesale partners across North America, Europe, and Asia.

The only person I’ve ever worked with who wore Canada Goose apparel was one of my most favorite portfolio managers ever. He was in his late-60s and enjoyed the good life. In winter, and this is in Cleveland mind you, he’d show up in well worn corduroy trousers, a sweater, and a Canada Goose parka. When he got to his desk he’d shuck off the coat, slip into loafers, and then go about his day.

If you ever ask me who I wanted to be when I grew up, it was either him, or this salty old credit officer who would get up and walk out of meetings halfway through when he got bored with them and thought his time was being wasted.

But back to Canada Goose. The stock price has been catching a bid recently due to a couple of reasons:

1. Channel strategy pivot: DTC grew ~13% in latest quarter, while wholesale dropped ~41%, signaling strategic recalibration toward higher‑margin consumer touchpoints.

2. Product mix innovation: Non‑heavy‑down categories grew ~20% in Q1 FY2025 and now represent nearly half of total sales—which is a key vector to reduce seasonality and open new venues for repeat purchases.

3. Global expansion focus: Strong APAC, esp. Greater China (up ~7.9% constant currency), plus newer EMEA activations in Selfridges and Galeries Lafayette.

The company is really trying to evolve into a higher-end lifestyle brand vs just a higher-end cold weather brand and so far they’re having some success. The only problem when you move into a fashion brand for all seasons is that people like novelty. So management has to constantly accelerate the roll‑out of Snow Goose-style seasonal drops across markets to drive freshness and premium engagement.

But is it sustainable?

While these pivots are all well and good, it’s hard to see how this returns the stock to the lofty price peaks of 2018 and 2019, especially if there’s any hiccup in the economy. The most notable headwinds they’re facing:

• Climate headwinds: Warmer winters suppress demand for high‑end cold weather gear.

• Diversification execution risk: Lighter apparel categories may dilute brand or fail to achieve target margins.

• Wholesale decline: Channel contraction in FY2025 could pressure volume if DTC growth doesn’t compensate.

• Macroeconomic exposure: Luxury spending sensitivity in North America and Greater China.

• Competitive pressure: From both ultra‑luxury (e.g. Moncler, Canada Goose’s new direction), and performance brands (Patagonia, The North Face).

So for me, this seems like a good portfolio hedge at least in the short run. Everybody loves Canadians, but only a very small cohort love paying $2,000 for a parka.